Tag Archive for 'Macroeconomics'


A taxonomy of aggregate output (Actual, Forecast, Natural, Potential, Efficient)

Actual GDP:  Just that

Forecast GDP:  Actual + no further shocks

Natural GDP:  Forecast + full utilisation (i.e. no current or residual shocks, either)

Potential GDP:  Natural + fully flexible prices

Efficient GDP:  Potential + no market power

That then gives three different versions of an output gap:  Actual minus Natural, Potential or Efficient.

For some models, there is no difference between Natural GDP and Potential GDP.  I don’t like those models.