Pr{US recession in 2008} = 47.5%?

According to betting on InTrade, the current market estimate for the probability that the US will experience a recession during 2008 is 47.5%.

BTW … InTrade really don’t like the idea of people directly linking to their contract pages like that.  I had to hunt for ages to find a direct link.  I guess it’s because they don’t include advertising on the contract page, but do through the main pages.

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